UTM professors weigh in on the future of Canada-U.S. relations
The Department of Political Science hosted a public panel discussion about the future of Canada’s relationship with its closest and strongest ally.
On March 11, speaking to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to end Canadian sovereignty. “Canada should honestly become our 51st state,” he said before explaining why he thinks it would be a good idea.
The Trump administration’s repeated undermining of Canada has caused many Canadians to lose faith in the U.S. The backlash has prompted retaliation across Canada, both economic and symbolic, such as the City of Mississauga’s decision last week to remove American flags at several locations.
To address students’ concerns about the current Canada-U.S. situation, the University of Toronto Mississauga (UTM)’s Department of Political Science hosted a public panel on March 13, titled, “Canada and the Trump Challenge.” The panel, led by six professors, went over the difficulties Canada may have to face regarding trade, the environment, defence, and its own independence in the face of such a threat.
“A disorienting time for Canadians”
Starting the discussion as moderator, Professor and Chair Steven Bernstein acknowledged that President Trump’s actions have been very “disorienting” for Canadians. “The opinion of the U.S. is at a record low, with only about a third of Canadians having a positive view of the U.S., which is about the same as those that have a positive view of Russia.”
He expressed his hopes that students would benefit from the panel’s informed and level-headed insights amid constant rhetoric and absurdity from politicians and social media.
Speaking on Canadian sovereignty, Professor Noel Anderson told the audience, “You can rest assured that the threat of a U.S. invasion of Canada is very remote,” arguing that it would be too difficult, costly, and demoralizing for the Americans for it to be a worthwhile venture.
He went on to say that Trump’s recent actions should nevertheless be a “wake-up call for Canadian leaders in Ottawa” to invest more in national defence and improve national unity to limit Canada’s reliance on the U.S.
Next, Professor Edward Schatz suggested that the war in Ukraine could impact Canada-U.S. relations. While Ukrainians are fighting for “territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Schatz explained, Russia is a force of imperialism. As such, a Russian victory in Ukraine would mark a regression to “might [make] right” in global politics, possibly setting the stage for the U.S. to subvert Canada’s right to govern itself.
As Canada seeks to strengthen its economy amid a trade war, Professor Andrea Olive questioned whether Canadian leaders will continue to take environmental protection seriously. “The Trump administration is dismantling climate policy…. Is Canada going to continue with its commitments, or are we too going to change the channel?”
Olive also warned that censorship might impact scientific research, revealing that U.S. government employees she worked with were disallowed from using certain phrases, such as “environmental justice” and “diversity, equity, and inclusion,” in reports about biodiversity and climate change.
On trade, Professor Spyridon Kotsovilis framed Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada as “economic warfare” that aims to protect American industry, generate revenue for the U.S. government, reduce trade deficits, and eventually help the U.S. to re-negotiate trade agreements with Canada and Mexico. Kotsovilis lamented that “the forecast is grim for Canada, and we may be headed for a recession.”
Finally, discussing military alliances, Professor Arnd Jurgensen stressed that “we must recognize as Canadians that we are not among the powerful [nations].” Canada needs allies to secure its independence, and although Trump’s annexation threats are “the most potent and realistic threat to Canada’s sovereignty at this point,” there are few options for dependable military partners other than the U.S.
However, Jurgensen also suggested that it is too early to speculate on the future of Canada-U.S. relations, given that Trump’s second term is still only a few weeks old. Jurgensen stated, “We are trying to analyze this situation in a way that is equivalent to trying to understand a car accident while the cars are still in motion.” Although Trump’s return to the Oval Office has certainly brought volatility to both the U.S. and Canada, it is unclear whether that volatility is here to stay.
A recording of the panel discussion is available on the UTM Political Science Department website.
