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After a decade of leadership, Justin Trudeau has resigned as Prime Minister – setting the stage for a political cascade in Ottawa.

Canada’s political scene didn’t just get a shake-up—it got the inevitable. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stepped down as the nation’s Prime Minister and as the Leader of the Liberal Party. Let’s be real: this wasn’t a shock. His resignation wasn’t a question of “if” but “when.” 

Internal tensions, sagging public support, and mounting pressures finally caught up. The tipping point? Chrystia Freeland’s unexpected resignation and the looming threat of a non-confidence vote, as MPs from Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic caucus reportedly pushed for Trudeau to step down over the holidays. The writing was on the wall. Trudeau’s tenure began with promises of a brighter future but ended as the party fractured under mounting challenges. 

The Liberals now face an almost inevitable defeat against a surging Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership. It’s the end of an era. After almost a decade under his leadership, Canadians have lost their trust in Trudeau.

The Cracks Within the Liberal Party

Behind the scenes, the Liberal Party has been wrestling with internal discontent. Key resignations over the past year have highlighted rifts within the party’s ranks. The last straw was Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, who resigned just hours before she was scheduled to present the fall economic statement, citing deep disagreements with Trudeau over fiscal policy and the lax handling of U.S. trade threats. 

In a public statement, Freeland said, “We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.” The political gimmick referred to here is the controversial tax holiday, a temporary break on sales taxes that was meant to help Canadians but ended up being more of a flashy political move than a practical solution. It came with a hefty price tag that only added to last year’s $60 billion deficit.

As Freeland stepped away, MPs from Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic caucuses publicly urged Trudeau to resign. On January 6th, in a last-ditch effort to reset the party’s trajectory, Trudeau announced his resignation as Prime Minister and the prorogation of Parliament until March 24.

This strategic pause aims to avoid a confidence vote and buy time for the Liberals to reorganize as the reality of a non-confidence vote by the New Democratic Party (NDP), their only remaining key ally, has now sealed Trudeau’s fate. Over the holidays, all federal opposition parties stated that the Prime Minister’s office had lost their confidence.

What prorogation means

Prorogation effectively allows the prime minister to hit pause on Parliament. All parliamentary activity—including existing bills, committee work, and investigations—comes to a halt. While the government remains in power, it is politically weakened, lacking support from Parliament. It seems likely that when Parliament reconvenes, a round of non-confidence votes will pressure the Liberals to hold an early election.

This isn’t the first time prorogation has been used during a political crisis. Trudeau previously employed it in 2020 during the WE Charity scandal. Similarly, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper used prorogation to avoid a no-confidence vote in 2008 and again in 2010 to end a committee inquiry into the treatment of Afghan detainees.

Pierre Poilievre has strongly criticized the Liberals’ use of prorogation, calling it a tactic to avoid accountability and emphasizing that prorogation during a time of economic and political instability further alienates Canadians. In a public statement, he also suggested that the Liberals are attempting to delay the inevitable loss of confidence in their governance, remarking that “the government seems more focused on its survival than on addressing the hardships Canadians are facing every day.”

This steep decline in Trudeau’s popularity is a reflection of shifting political opinions in recent years.

Recent polling from The Angus Reid Institute underscores growing frustration among Canadians, with the cost of living and inflation, healthcare, housing affordability, and immigration being some of the primary concerns of 2024.

Immigration Policy Under Fire

Canada’s welcoming immigration policies have been a point of pride, but they’ve also become a source of contention in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic led to labour shortages in various sectors of the Canadian economy, prompting Trudeau’s federal government to increase the number of temporary foreign workers allowed into the country. Yet, as public opinion turned against the policy, with 58% of Canadians believing the country was accepting too many immigrants, Trudeau U-turned on his policy, stating, “Looking back, when the post-pandemic boom cooled and businesses no longer needed the additional labour help, as a federal team we could have acted quicker and turned off the taps faster.”

The Housing Crisis

Ask any Canadian about housing, and you’ll likely hear frustration. Soaring real estate prices and skyrocketing rents have left many—especially young families—feeling locked out of the market. Trudeau’s government faced backlash for not doing enough to tackle this crisis.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre didn’t mince words in his interview with Jordan Peterson, stating that Canadians are falling further behind as inflation elevates housing costs, whilst national productivity trails behind that of the U.S.

The Cost-of-Living Debate

Inflation is hitting Canadians where it hurts—their wallets. Rising costs for essentials like groceries and gas have left many families struggling to make ends meet. In fact, nearly three in four Canadians reported that rising prices are affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses such as transportation, housing, food, and clothing. To cope, many are making tough choices. Some are eating less to save money, while others are sharing expenses through cohabiting or carpooling. Grant Bazian, president of MNP LTD, the country’s largest insolvency firm, says, “We’re witnessing a bill-splitting boom as Canadians adapt to the high cost of living.”

What’s Next for the Liberals?

Trudeau’s resignation leaves a leadership vacuum. Potential successors, like Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Karina Gould have already launched campaigns for the Liberals’ top position. However, it won’t be easy to regain the public trust lost by the previous government and whoever steps up will face an uphill battle against the Conservatives. The party’s future depends on its ability to connect with voters and offer real solutions—something it has repeatedly failed to do, as NDP leader Jagmeet Singh pointed out in his remarks regarding Trudeau’s resignation.

The timing couldn’t be worse, as with federal elections looming around the corner, the Liberals don’t have much time to patch their seemingly sinking ship.