An election we may never see again
A breakdown of the 2025 Canadian Federal Election

On the 28th of April 2025, Canadians across the country watched one of the most shocking election outcomes since perhaps the collapse of Mulroney’s conservative party. The Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), led by Mark Carney, had defeated Pierre Poilievre’s Canadian Conservative Party (CPC). The outcome of the election, however, was not necessarily the most shocking part, but rather how the LPC got there. The outcome of this election cycle was so extraordinary that we will likely never see an election cycle like this ever again.

Polling, prior in the weeks leading up to the election, had the LPC decisively winning the election by a wider margin than the Liberals realized on election night. But, had you taken a nap on January 1 and woken up at the end of April, you would have been dumbfounded by this outcome. 

At the beginning of the year, the CPC were projected to win at minimum; a decisive majority, if not a supermajority, giving the CPC the ability to unilaterally pass legislation. The LPC was practically on life support, and the CPC were guaranteed to form government for the first time since 2015. 

I would like to start with a short discussion about the fascinating timeline that preceded the election. 

According to polling data, the LPC and CPC had fluctuated by the same margins from the time Justin Trudeau had formed his third government in 2021 until the summer of 2023, when the CPC soared. This gap continued to widen through the start of 2025. The LPC was on its electoral deathbed, and the CPC were virtually guaranteed to form the government for the first time since 2015. However, midway through February the lead for the CPC began to shrink. 

By the start of March, their odds of majority were gone, and just a few weeks later, so were their chances of winning a plurality of seats. In contrast, the Liberals soared to well above the majority marker, one which they would ultimately fall short of on election night. 

These rapid fluctuations in polls are what have led me—as well as other observers—to discuss what has shaped this outcome. One of the most important reasons is leadership. 

By late December, Trudeau’s Cabinet was in complete shambles. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned, citing that she and the Prime Minister “found [themselves] at odds about the best path forward for Canada.” Then Housing Minister Sean Fraser also announced he would not run for reelection—a decision he later retracted on, when it became clear the LPC was making an electoral comeback. On January 6, 2025, the Prime Minister packed his bags and announced his resignation in front of the Governor General’s house at Rideau Hall. 

The resignation of Trudeau gave way to an election within the LPC to choose their next leader, which gave candidates such as Carney the ability to present a new Liberal front through policies such as military investment and the revocation of unpopular policies such as the Carbon Tax, while also being able to capitalize on the fears of Canadians regarding US aggression. Additionally, it put the CPC on the back foot for the first time, forcing them to change their political strategy and messaging. 

Another important factor in the LPC win was the outcome of the US Elections. 

On February 1st, Donald Trump placed his first set of tariffs on Canada, an unprecedented move given the strategic relationship shared by both countries, which was then followed up by a flurry of territorial threats. Canadians were, rightfully, concerned for our political and economic sovereignty. Issues like Canadian sovereignty, Trump’s rhetoric, and American tariffs were among the reasons for voting LPC, according to over a dozen anonymous students and faculty I had reached out to for comment. 

Canadian leaders were quick to capitalize on Trump. In January, Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario, debated the American talk-show host, Jesse Watters, to assert Canadian independence. Carney and Poiliever were quick to shape their respective campaigns around the American threat, which undoubtedly shifted the ballot issues just two months before the election.

Rising cost of living and flaming economic anxiety after the COVID-19 pandemic gave the CPC an anti-incumbent advantage. However, in the face of rising costs due to tariffs, the national Canadian identity has become intertwined with the cost of living crises we are facing. 

Additionally, isolationist rhetoric likely pushed people away from the Conservative ballots. This rhetoric was further made apparent as campaign messages by the CPC became less relevant to Canadian issues as election dates approached. 

One faculty member noted that Canadian sovereignty and the search for new allies had contributed to why they voted Liberal in April. 

As is the case for most Conservative parties in the Western world, much of their rhetoric is based on isolationism. Poilievre—while not entirely Trumpist in his rhetoric towards allies and international organizations—echoed ideas on “Canada First” and raised fears regarding our immigration system. 

Based on my discussions with students, many claimed that xenophobia was one of the reasons they turned out for the LPC. In an effort to bolster the ‘Canadian national identity’ and contrast it from the American identity, students want to look for outward solidarity through internationalism rather than internal galvanization through isolationism, as the Americans did in their 2024 Presidential Elections. 

In doing so, many Canadians saw it as worthy to back a ‘moderate and rational’ Liberal rather than what many of them perceived as a populist bulwark, similar in suit if not kind to the man in Washington DC.

That said, even though they won the election, the Liberals did not come out on top with the majority they were projected to have in the polls. They will need to find new allies in Ottawa while combating many of the same issues that put the CPC so far ahead in the first place. 

In mid-August, Poilievre also made his return to the House of Commons, and we are guaranteed to see plenty of political gamesmanship return to the fore. Nonetheless, I doubt we will ever see an election outcome as jarring or unpredictable as this one again in our lifetimes.